Confirmed previous forecast
1.157649
Relative Brier Score
56
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 11 | 84 | 67 | 255 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 11 | 19 | 16 | 55 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Definitions |
New Prediction
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
98%
(0%)
Yes
2%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
20%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
10%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Moldova
2%
(0%)
Armenia
2%
(0%)
Georgia
2%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(-20%)
Yes
80%
(+20%)
No
Reducing my forecast taking into consideration what happens right now in the area
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Yes
99%
(+4%)
No
It is a complete No taking into account recent news and the conflict in the zone
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
5%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
95%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files