107th
Accuracy Rank

Laura2021

About:
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1.157649

Relative Brier Score

56

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 11 84 67 255
Comments 0 0 1 1 5
Questions Forecasted 0 11 19 16 55
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 1 1 1
 Definitions
New Prediction
Laura2021
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
98% (0%)
Yes
2% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Laura2021
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
10% (0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
20% (0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
10% (0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0% (0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Laura2021
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
6% (0%)
Moldova
2% (0%)
Armenia
2% (0%)
Georgia
2% (0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction

Reducing my forecast taking into consideration what happens right now in the area

Files
New Prediction
It is a complete No taking into account recent news and the conflict in the zone
Files
New Prediction
Laura2021
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (0%)
Yes
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Laura2021
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
5% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
95% (0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Laura2021
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (0%)
Yes
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
98% (0%)
No
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Laura2021
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (0%)
Yes
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
98% (0%)
No
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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