Confirmed previous forecast
0.061322
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Science & Technology,
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Iran: Threats & Influence
Most Active Topics:
Open RAN,
Iran-VNSAs
New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Sep 28, 2024 02:11PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 28, 2024 to Aug 28, 2025
70%
(0%)
No
Aug 28, 2024 to Aug 28, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
(0%)
Yes
15%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 26, 2024 07:07AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30%
Yes
Jul 26, 2024 to Jul 26, 2025
70%
No
Jul 26, 2024 to Jul 26, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
The IDF is fully occupoied eradicating Hamas. The Gaza thread is much more direct and active than the Shiit from Lebanon. As long as Hezobolla keeps low profile Israel will not attack. Never forget Isreal hes never started a war every war they fought has been a war of defense provoced either by state actors or proxi clans. Iran have now a new ally in Jemen they can use and Iran have issues of their own
Files
Why might you be wrong?
a change in leadership in Iran could trigger a more reckless support of their proxies harassing Isreal, diverting US and other helpull ijits attention away from the regime developing their own islamic nuke.. Hezobollah could provide the distraction they need.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
(0%)
Yes
15%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
Yes
15%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Huawei is a commercial enterprice and as such interersted in moving kit.
If this means open RAN they 'll make and sell open RAN. The backdoor, if any, through which the CCP can look over your shoulder will be provided via separate ways.
I believe the management is sufficiently smart and savvy and did learn from the speed of thedemise of once giants in this business to anticipate on changes and different tastes. Let us not forget 2/3 of teh world is outside the so called west and there is an ever growing demand for comms equipment.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It is always possible the powers that be block Huawey from branching out in that direction. It is a remote possibility. Or hubris struck Huawey and they feel big and emldlned enough to weather this kind of storm.
Files