Aside from Moldova, it doesn't look like there are any good arguments for it Russia bothering with any of these countries.
0.130998
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 62 | 43 | 91 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 25 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 25 | 20 | 28 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
21%
Moldova
0%
Armenia
0%
Georgia
0%
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Something I don't know and the other forecasters don't.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 3, 2024 08:52PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
May 3, 2024 to May 3, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
May 3, 2024 to May 3, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
2%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 3, 2024 08:52PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024
96%
(0%)
No
May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
8%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(0%)
Yes
10%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 1, 2024 01:37AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
At this point, the odds of this happening are close to zero.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It's a long time and a lot happens in the Middle East.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Given the general instability of the area and how long they've wanted to take out Hezbollah, it seems possible.
Why might you be wrong?
The desire to (not) add to the instability.