23rd
Accuracy Rank

MikeAp

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1.163946

Relative Brier Score

199

Forecasts

3

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 1 12 87 86 199
Comments 1 2 23 22 51
Questions Forecasted 1 12 23 23 52
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 3
 Definitions


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MikeAp
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Space Force General David Thompson revealed in 2021 that the U.S. faces "reversible attacks" against satellites from China and Russia "every single day." These include jamming, spoofing, laser dazzling, and cyber attacks.

Russia successfully jammed Viasat satellites in February 2022 during the Ukraine invasion and over 10,000+ satellite interference incidents occur annually. GPS/GNSS jamming has increased from ~700 daily incidents in 2024 to 1,000+ in 2025. 

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Why might you be wrong?

There are strong deterrents here, but the most decisive one is reversible (and deniable) attacks are preferable to permeant ones that could provoke retaliation. Still, due to ongoing conflicts between 


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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Given the intensely risk-averse culture of the FDA, even in its current incarnation, this seems unlikely. The only application where some degree of LLM integration might be approved would be, maybe, a "therapist in a box." Even then, there would be major hurdles. 

Due to the low bar set by the resolution criteria, I am keeping my guess at 1%. Given the resolution's very short timeline, this might be too high. 

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Why might you be wrong?

Pre-submissions, like Contrast Llama, exist, but the road to FDA approval is long and rocky. I see no special incentives to push LLM-based devices through...

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New Prediction
MikeAp
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes
100% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
MikeAp
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
70% (0%)
Less than $350 million
12% (0%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million
9% (0%)
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million
9% (0%)
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million
0% (0%)
More than or equal to $650 million
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
MikeAp
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
99% (0%)
No
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
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