Barring a coup or an unforeseen health issue, Putin looks like he's here to stay.
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0
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Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 65 | 48 | 96 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 12 | 8 | 26 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 27 | 22 | 30 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 14, 2024 08:26PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(-2%)
Yes
Oct 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
100%
(+2%)
No
Oct 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
It seems even less likely now.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(0%)
Yes
10%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 3, 2024 09:01PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
22%
Yes
May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024
78%
No
May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
Given the general instability of the area and how long they've wanted to take out Hezbollah, it seems possible.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The desire to (not) add to the instability.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
21%
Moldova
0%
Armenia
0%
Georgia
0%
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Aside from Moldova, it doesn't look like there are any good arguments for it Russia bothering with any of these countries.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Something I don't know and the other forecasters don't.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 3, 2024 08:52PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
May 3, 2024 to May 3, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
May 3, 2024 to May 3, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
2%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The consensus seems to be that it is possible, but unlikely. @Plataea479 claims a Trump victory will lead to a positive resolution.
Why might you be wrong?
The region is notoriously unstable.