Paul_Rowan

Joining late on this, although by after a brief look of forecasts by crowd and team, seem there's no clear consensus forming yet, with forecasts ranging from ~30 to ~70%, refreshing. With the negotiations at the stage that they are, there really are many ways things can either be agreed fast, or be completely wrecked.

I'l make a marginally "optimist" forecast (using the word lightly as I can't be sure that a ceasefire actually serves any optimal end result for the conflict).  While there are likely to be rounds of negotiations, both sides playing games, Russia has been partially forced to enter the table, and start acknowledging the progress towards war. If things don't progress on their side, there may be frustration growing on Trump side despite their warm approach to Putin, and Putin might not want to test Trump's uncertain patience. G7 is also pressuring with new sanctions, and EU adding tariffs on Russian fertilizer.