Slightly following crowd on this
-0.223844
Relative Brier Score
193
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 10 | 25 | 246 | 193 | 1678 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 115 |
| Questions Forecasted | 9 | 14 | 43 | 27 | 134 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 31 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
(+4%)
Yes
Nov 21, 2024 to Nov 21, 2025
88%
(-4%)
No
Nov 21, 2024 to Nov 21, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
97%
(0%)
Yes
3%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
0%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
100%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Update
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Less than or equal to 59
10%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
22%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
38%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
28%
More than or equal to 90
Why do you think you're right?
Not much to add to what I checked from crowd comments and the AI summary. I think my thinking is influenced by few factors: the opportunity presented in Germany's uncertain political situation, and the increase of right-wing or populist figures who become insider outlets for foreign disinformation campaigns. Also the first months have given higher case numbers in the database, which I take as an early signal to bet on.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There's very little risk for Pro-Kremlin outlets to not make disinformation, so I'm pondering whether they have some sort of "resource allocation" for reducing/increasing amount of specific language disinformation. I didn't quickly spot a reason for the "14 cases" outlier of 2022-2023.
Files
Weirdly gonna lift this to 1 for a moment. Read on news that the reported time and actual time between meetings by Putin and when they're publiziced by Kremlin has been increasing to nearly 2 months delay, and wonder why Putin has basically "disappeared" from public appearances for 2 weeks. As background.. Kremlin posts daily of Putin's activities, and it's known that there usually may be ~2 weeks between appearance and actual news post so Kremlin can present Putin as being a busy and energetic leader continuously working.