Confirming
-0.835003
Relative Brier Score
733
Forecasts
17
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 13 | 300 | 155 | 1640 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 62 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 13 | 45 | 26 | 133 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 31 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 23, 2024 to Sep 23, 2025
96%
(0%)
No
Sep 23, 2024 to Sep 23, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 17, 2024 to Mar 17, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Sep 17, 2024 to Mar 17, 2025
Confirming
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 11, 2024 to Mar 11, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Sep 11, 2024 to Mar 11, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
97%
(+2%)
Yes
3%
(-2%)
No
Update
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
0%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
100%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(-10%)
Yes
80%
(+10%)
No
update
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 11, 2024 to Mar 11, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 24%
0%
(-10%)
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
54%
(-10%)
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
46%
(+20%)
More than or equal to 28%
Update
Files
Adjusting to crowd