I'm assuming that TSMC stopping shipments to China might tip the scales more towards US. This of course only concerns the <7nm chips
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| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 16 | 240 | 184 | 1669 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 115 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 14 | 43 | 27 | 134 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 31 |
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 24%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
3%
(-1%)
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
97%
(+1%)
More than or equal to 28%
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
41%
(+6%)
Yes
59%
(-6%)
No
Updating
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
4%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
(-1%)
Yes
Nov 8, 2024 to Nov 8, 2025
92%
(+1%)
No
Nov 8, 2024 to Nov 8, 2025
Updating
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 8, 2024 to May 8, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 8, 2024 to May 8, 2025
Confirming
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 3, 2024 to May 3, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 3, 2024 to May 3, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
97%
(0%)
Yes
3%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
0%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
100%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Not much to add to what I checked from crowd comments and the AI summary. I think my thinking is influenced by few factors: the opportunity presented in Germany's uncertain political situation, and the increase of right-wing or populist figures who become insider outlets for foreign disinformation campaigns. Also the first months have given higher case numbers in the database, which I take as an early signal to bet on.
Why might you be wrong?
There's very little risk for Pro-Kremlin outlets to not make disinformation, so I'm pondering whether they have some sort of "resource allocation" for reducing/increasing amount of specific language disinformation. I didn't quickly spot a reason for the "14 cases" outlier of 2022-2023.