Confirmed previous forecast
-0.721811
Relative Brier Score
740
Forecasts
12
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 9 | 14 | 256 | 178 | 1663 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 63 |
| Questions Forecasted | 9 | 13 | 43 | 26 | 133 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 31 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 3, 2024 to May 3, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 3, 2024 to May 3, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
97%
(0%)
Yes
3%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
0%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
100%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 3, 2024 to May 3, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 24%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
4%
(-16%)
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
96%
(+16%)
More than or equal to 28%
Update with crowd
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 3, 2024 to May 3, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 3, 2024 to May 3, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files