37th
Accuracy Rank

Paul_Rowan

About:
Show more

-0.223844

Relative Brier Score

193

Forecasts

2

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 9 25 246 193 1678
Comments 0 1 9 8 115
Questions Forecasted 8 14 43 27 134
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 2 2 31
 Definitions
New Prediction

Weirdly gonna lift this to 1 for a moment. Read on news that the reported time and actual time between meetings by Putin and when they're publiziced by Kremlin has been increasing to nearly 2 months delay, and wonder why Putin has basically "disappeared" from public appearances for 2 weeks. As background.. Kremlin posts daily of Putin's activities, and it's known that there usually may be ~2 weeks between appearance and actual news post so Kremlin can present Putin as being a busy and energetic leader continuously working. 

Files
New Prediction
Paul_Rowan
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12% (+4%)
Yes
Nov 21, 2024 to Nov 21, 2025
88% (-4%)
No
Nov 21, 2024 to Nov 21, 2025

Slightly following crowd on this

Files
New Prediction
Paul_Rowan
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
97% (0%)
Yes
3% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Paul_Rowan
made their 18th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Kuwait
0% (0%)
Oman
0% (0%)
Qatar
0% (0%)
Saudi Arabia
0% (0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Paul_Rowan
made their 18th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
100% (0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Paul_Rowan
made their 17th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction

Update

Files
New Prediction
Paul_Rowan
made their 17th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Paul_Rowan
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
2%
Less than or equal to 59
10%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
22%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
38%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
28%
More than or equal to 90
Why do you think you're right?

Not much to add to what I checked from crowd comments and the AI summary. I think my thinking is influenced by few factors: the opportunity presented in Germany's uncertain political situation, and the increase of right-wing or populist figures who become insider outlets for foreign disinformation campaigns. Also the first months have given higher case numbers in the database, which I take as an early signal to bet on. 

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Why might you be wrong?

There's very little risk for Pro-Kremlin outlets to not make disinformation, so I'm pondering whether they have some sort of "resource allocation" for reducing/increasing amount of specific language disinformation. I didn't quickly spot a reason for the "14 cases" outlier of 2022-2023.

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Files
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