Paul_Rowan

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Relative Brier Score
136230-2024681012141618202224
Questions Forecasted

43

Forecasts

3

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Forecasts 8 23 193 43 1739
Comments 3 15 39 30 148
Questions Forecasted 8 18 40 23 149
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 1 4 3 34
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Why might you be wrong?

This could be a 50/50 with the timeframe and a high degree of uncertainty involved in both directions.

The resolution criteria frames Yes as a ceasefire that's not temporary, which I assume means it doesn't have an end date set in the beginning. This might make the criteria more diffcult to achieve than one with duration like 30 days etc. 

The difficulty with the current ceasefire negotiation is that I does not contain "merit" or wins for Russia, and typically they/Putin seek to get concessions on every agreeements, regardless whether they follow through or not. This may mean a very long process still ahead, as to have Ukraine continuously agree to giving in would likely be impossible, and unlikely with US depending how much power Trump wants to express in turn.

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New Prediction
Paul_Rowan
made their 10th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Mar 12, 2025 to Sep 12, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Mar 12, 2025 to Sep 12, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Paul_Rowan
made their 10th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12% (0%)
Yes
Mar 12, 2025 to Mar 12, 2026
88% (0%)
No
Mar 12, 2025 to Mar 12, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Paul_Rowan
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
13% (0%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
84% (0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
3% (0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

increasing 

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Why might you be wrong?

-

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Paul_Rowan
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (0%)
Yes
Mar 11, 2025 to Sep 11, 2025
98% (0%)
No
Mar 11, 2025 to Sep 11, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Confirmed previous

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Why might you be wrong?

-

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Adjusting a bit more after reading comments

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Why might you be wrong?

-

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