Confirmed previous forecast
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
51
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 16 | 31 | 201 | 51 | 1747 |
| Comments | 5 | 17 | 41 | 32 | 150 |
| Questions Forecasted | 16 | 18 | 40 | 23 | 149 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 34 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 9%
2%
(0%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
79%
(0%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
19%
(0%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 40%
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 49
0%
(0%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
36%
(0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
50%
(0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
14%
(0%)
More than or equal to 80
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Yes
94%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 59
5%
(-1%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
36%
(+1%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
44%
(+1%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
14%
(-1%)
More than or equal to 90
Why do you think you're right?
Updating with crowd
Files
Why might you be wrong?
-
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
0%
(-2%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Why do you think you're right?
Updating to 0 due to time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
-
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 16, 2025 to Sep 16, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Mar 16, 2025 to Sep 16, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
55%
Yes
45%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Joining late on this, although by after a brief look of forecasts by crowd and team, seem there's no clear consensus forming yet, with forecasts ranging from ~30 to ~70%, refreshing. With the negotiations at the stage that they are, there really are many ways things can either be agreed fast, or be completely wrecked.
I'l make a marginally "optimist" forecast (using the word lightly as I can't be sure that a ceasefire actually serves any optimal end result for the conflict). While there are likely to be rounds of negotiations, both sides playing games, Russia has been partially forced to enter the table, and start acknowledging the progress towards war. If things don't progress on their side, there may be frustration growing on Trump side despite their warm approach to Putin, and Putin might not want to test Trump's uncertain patience. G7 is also pressuring with new sanctions, and EU adding tariffs on Russian fertilizer.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
This could be a 50/50 with the timeframe and a high degree of uncertainty involved in both directions.
The resolution criteria frames Yes as a ceasefire that's not temporary, which I assume means it doesn't have an end date set in the beginning. This might make the criteria more diffcult to achieve than one with duration like 30 days etc.
The difficulty with the current ceasefire negotiation is that I does not contain "merit" or wins for Russia, and typically they/Putin seek to get concessions on every agreeements, regardless whether they follow through or not. This may mean a very long process still ahead, as to have Ukraine continuously agree to giving in would likely be impossible, and unlikely with US depending how much power Trump wants to express in turn.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 12, 2025 to Sep 12, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Mar 12, 2025 to Sep 12, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files