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Why do you think you're right?
Updating with crowd
Why might you be wrong?
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Why do you think you're right?
Updating to 0 due to time
Why might you be wrong?
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Why do you think you're right?
Joining late on this, although by after a brief look of forecasts by crowd and team, seem there's no clear consensus forming yet, with forecasts ranging from ~30 to ~70%, refreshing. With the negotiations at the stage that they are, there really are many ways things can either be agreed fast, or be completely wrecked.
I'l make a marginally "optimist" forecast (using the word lightly as I can't be sure that a ceasefire actually serves any optimal end result for the conflict). While there are likely to be rounds of negotiations, both sides playing games, Russia has been partially forced to enter the table, and start acknowledging the progress towards war. If things don't progress on their side, there may be frustration growing on Trump side despite their warm approach to Putin, and Putin might not want to test Trump's uncertain patience. G7 is also pressuring with new sanctions, and EU adding tariffs on Russian fertilizer.
Why might you be wrong?
This could be a 50/50 with the timeframe and a high degree of uncertainty involved in both directions.
The resolution criteria frames Yes as a ceasefire that's not temporary, which I assume means it doesn't have an end date set in the beginning. This might make the criteria more diffcult to achieve than one with duration like 30 days etc.
The difficulty with the current ceasefire negotiation is that I does not contain "merit" or wins for Russia, and typically they/Putin seek to get concessions on every agreeements, regardless whether they follow through or not. This may mean a very long process still ahead, as to have Ukraine continuously agree to giving in would likely be impossible, and unlikely with US depending how much power Trump wants to express in turn.
