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134th
Accuracy Rank

PeruforecastSacredvalley

About:

Started forecasting in GJP 2.0, collaborating with RANGE, and since 2023, very happy to learn & colaborate here at RAND - INFER.

Modeling parameters based on Eponyms, a tool to provide more accurate forecasts using a few "principles, laws and effects".

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2023 Season Stats

2.928083

Relative Brier Score

661

Forecasts

245

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 13 16 375 242 903
Comments 0 1 139 76 414
Questions Forecasted 13 16 58 40 80
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 81 42 287
 Definitions
New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
PeruforecastSacredvalley made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
99% (+24%)
Yes
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
1% (-24%)
No
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025

Increasing the %, maybe the fact that IDF recently targeted Nasrallah is as close to a declaration of war as it can get...

Files
New Prediction
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
PeruforecastSacredvalley made their 16th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
100% (0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
PeruforecastSacredvalley made their 5th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Estonia
1% (0%)
Latvia
2% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
PeruforecastSacredvalley made their 10th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
PeruforecastSacredvalley made their 16th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
PeruforecastSacredvalley made their 7th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
PeruforecastSacredvalley made their 11th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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