162nd
Accuracy Rank

PeruforecastSacredvalley

About:

Started forecasting in GJP 2.0, collaborating with RANGE, and since 2023, very happy to learn & colaborate here at RAND - INFER.

Modeling parameters based on Eponyms, a tool to provide more accurate forecasts using a few "principles, laws and effects".

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All Time Stats

3.674627

Relative Brier Score

929

Forecasts

287

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 15 318 268 929
Comments 0 0 95 77 415
Questions Forecasted 0 15 56 40 80
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 51 42 287
 Definitions

Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict, Science & Technology, Iran: Threats & Influence, INFER x Cosmic Bazaar Collaboration, Russia-Ukraine War

Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy, Iran Nuclear Program, Decoding Disinformation, Iran-VNSAs, Semiconductor Supply Chain

New Prediction
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
PeruforecastSacredvalley made their 12th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
PeruforecastSacredvalley made their 18th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
PeruforecastSacredvalley made their 9th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
35% (0%)
Yes
Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025
65% (0%)
No
Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
PeruforecastSacredvalley made their 13th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
PeruforecastSacredvalley made their 12th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
45% (0%)
Yes
Nov 2, 2024 to Nov 2, 2025
55% (0%)
No
Nov 2, 2024 to Nov 2, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
PeruforecastSacredvalley made their 10th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50% (-20%)
Yes
Nov 2, 2024 to Nov 2, 2025
50% (+20%)
No
Nov 2, 2024 to Nov 2, 2025

The retaliation of Iran might not be as strong as thought before.

Files
New Prediction
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
PeruforecastSacredvalley made their 8th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
90% (+40%)
Yes
10% (-40%)
No

Seems like the people of that country will follow Cuban example. they wont rise against the tyrany

Files
Files
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