Confirmed previous forecast
0.018831
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
576
Forecasts
44
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 25 | 130 | 1799 | 576 | 3377 |
| Comments | 2 | 33 | 229 | 140 | 371 |
| Questions Forecasted | 25 | 26 | 72 | 37 | 156 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 6 | 222 | 44 | 732 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 15, 2025 to Oct 15, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Apr 15, 2025 to Oct 15, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 49
3%
(0%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
33%
(0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
52%
(0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
12%
(0%)
More than or equal to 80
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
93%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
2%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
3%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
66%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
10%
(0%)
30 days
7%
(0%)
31-60 days
7%
(0%)
61-90 days
10%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-3%)
Togo
30%
(-10%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Why do you think you're right?
Down a little for
1) the mercenaries the media reported about to be recruited in China seeming to get poor training (that´s not Wagner style, they mostly hired former special forces) and deployed to Ukraine (which is a totally different theatre).
2) no end of the war in Ukraine in sight, where most of Russia´s military resources go to.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
x
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 9%
5%
(0%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
75%
(0%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
20%
(0%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 40%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 15, 2025 to Oct 15, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Apr 15, 2025 to Oct 15, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
3%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files