Confirmed previous forecast
-0.388364
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
1142
Forecasts
414
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 25 | 129 | 1823 | 601 | 3402 |
| Comments | 2 | 27 | 231 | 142 | 373 |
| Questions Forecasted | 25 | 26 | 72 | 37 | 156 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 6 | 222 | 44 | 732 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast will expire on May 21, 2025
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 21, 2025 to Oct 21, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Apr 21, 2025 to Oct 21, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-5%)
Yes
95%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
$484 billion behind Apple, little time left, but freaking volatile .
https://www.companiesmarketcap.com/
Files
Why might you be wrong?
x
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 49
3%
(0%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
33%
(0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
52%
(0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
12%
(0%)
More than or equal to 80
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
93%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
2%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
3%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
66%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
10%
(0%)
30 days
7%
(0%)
31-60 days
7%
(0%)
61-90 days
10%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(0%)
Togo
30%
(0%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 9%
5%
(0%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
75%
(0%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
20%
(0%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 40%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast will expire on May 21, 2025
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 21, 2025 to Oct 21, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Apr 21, 2025 to Oct 21, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
3%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files