Confirmed previous forecast
-0.317868
Relative Brier Score
1351
Forecasts
231
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 37 | 153 | 1557 | 1351 | 2544 |
| Comments | 0 | 7 | 76 | 70 | 192 |
| Questions Forecasted | 36 | 37 | 86 | 63 | 140 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 17 | 258 | 231 | 660 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(0%)
Yes
60%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Less than or equal to 59
10%
(-4%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
27%
(0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
31%
(+3%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
31%
(+3%)
More than or equal to 90
13 cases so far, latest one on 11 November. 4 ones added in the past 8 days.
Extrapolation would still easily be highest bin (96), and there might also be some reporting lag. So far I see no direct connection between the topics and the early election in Germany. I´d supspect, that this data also has a low correlation with what is behind this question and will from now on simply extrapolate and slowly adjust my forecast to that over time.
https://euvsdisinfo.eu/disinformation-cases/?disinfo_language[]=German
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(0%)
Yes
75%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(0%)
Yes
60%
(0%)
No
$104 billion ahead of Apple.
https://companiesmarketcap.com/
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 24%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
3%
(0%)
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
97%
(0%)
More than or equal to 28%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Angola
10%
(0%)
Kenya
40%
(0%)
Ethiopia
5%
(0%)
Nigeria
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(0%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
55%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
5%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 9%
11%
(0%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
71%
(0%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
16%
(0%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 40%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Little time now, but the idea around minute 20/21 looks interesting for this question.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dyj7JROq3zc