Forecasted Questions
How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?
Forecast Count:
44 Forecasts
44 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(5 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 21, 2025 11:06AM
(8 hours ago)
Apr 21, 2025 11:06AM
(8 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 59 | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
| Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 9% | 9% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 45% | 35% | +10% | +0% |
| Between 80 and 89, inclusive | 41% | 42% | -1% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 90 | 5% | 11% | -6% | +0% |
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts
14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
(4 years from now)
Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 21, 2025 11:07AM
(8 hours ago)
Apr 21, 2025 11:07AM
(8 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 7% | +13% | +0% |
| No | 80% | 93% | -13% | +0% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
82 Forecasts
82 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 21, 2025 11:07AM
(8 hours ago)
Apr 21, 2025 11:07AM
(8 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 2% | -2% | 0% |
| No | 100% | 98% | +2% | 0% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
42 Forecasts
42 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 21, 2025 11:07AM
(8 hours ago)
Apr 21, 2025 11:07AM
(8 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 40% | 37% | +3% | +0% |
| No | 60% | 63% | -3% | +0% |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
36 Forecasts
36 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(8 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 21, 2025 11:08AM
(8 hours ago)
Apr 21, 2025 11:08AM
(8 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | Apr 21, 2025 to Oct 21, 2025 | May 21, 2025 11:08AM | 6% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 95% | Apr 21, 2025 to Oct 21, 2025 | May 21, 2025 11:08AM | 94% | +1% | +0% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts
25 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(8 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 21, 2025 11:08AM
(8 hours ago)
Apr 21, 2025 11:08AM
(8 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | Apr 21, 2025 to Oct 21, 2025 | May 21, 2025 11:08AM | 2% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 97% | Apr 21, 2025 to Oct 21, 2025 | May 21, 2025 11:08AM | 98% | -1% | +0% |
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts
25 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(8 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 21, 2025 11:08AM
(8 hours ago)
Apr 21, 2025 11:08AM
(8 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | Apr 21, 2025 to Oct 21, 2025 | May 21, 2025 11:08AM | 43% | +7% | +0% |
| No | 50% | Apr 21, 2025 to Oct 21, 2025 | May 21, 2025 11:08AM | 57% | -7% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
66 Forecasts
66 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 21, 2025 11:08AM
(8 hours ago)
Apr 21, 2025 11:08AM
(8 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 6% | 7% | -1% | +0% |
| Armenia | 1% | 2% | -1% | 0% |
| Georgia | 8% | 5% | +3% | 0% |
| Kazakhstan | 1% | 2% | -1% | 0% |
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
36 Forecasts
36 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(8 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 21, 2025 11:09AM
(8 hours ago)
Apr 21, 2025 11:09AM
(8 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 5% | +0% | 0% |
| No | 95% | 95% | +0% | 0% |
Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
65 Forecasts
65 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(5 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 21, 2025 11:09AM
(8 hours ago)
Apr 21, 2025 11:09AM
(8 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |