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PeterStamp

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My name is Peter Stamp. I´m a 1971 born german financial advisor and insurance broker.

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Forecasted Questions
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Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

You quit this question on Jun 28, 2024 10:11AM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
 22 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 28, 2024 10:11AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 90% 9%
No 10% 91%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
 22 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 19, 2024 04:15PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 8%
No 98% 92%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 19, 2024 04:19PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 19, 2024 04:21PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Argentina 20% 16%
Bolivia 25% 22%
Ecuador 15% 12%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 19, 2024 04:22PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 15% Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025 Dec 19, 2024 12%
No 85% Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025 Dec 19, 2024 88%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 19, 2024 04:23PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 9% 5%
No 91% 95%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
 61 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 19, 2024 04:23PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 0%
No 100% 100%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 20 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 19, 2024 04:23PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025 Dec 19, 2024 1%
No 100% Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025 Dec 19, 2024 99%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 69 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 19, 2024 04:23PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 21 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 19, 2024 04:24PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%
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