Confirmed previous forecast
-0.548378
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
3402
Forecasts
732
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 25 | 129 | 1797 | 601 | 3402 |
| Comments | 2 | 27 | 231 | 142 | 373 |
| Questions Forecasted | 25 | 26 | 71 | 37 | 156 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 5 | 222 | 44 | 732 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Iran Nuclear Program,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Open RAN,
Semiconductor Supply Chain,
Iran-VNSAs
New Prediction
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 21, 2025 to Oct 21, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Apr 21, 2025 to Oct 21, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-5%)
Yes
95%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
$484 billion behind Apple, little time left, but freaking volatile .
https://www.companiesmarketcap.com/
Files
Why might you be wrong?
x
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 49
3%
(0%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
33%
(0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
52%
(0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
12%
(0%)
More than or equal to 80
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
93%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
2%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
3%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
66%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
10%
(0%)
30 days
7%
(0%)
31-60 days
7%
(0%)
61-90 days
10%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(0%)
Togo
30%
(0%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 9%
5%
(0%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
75%
(0%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
20%
(0%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 40%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 21, 2025 to Oct 21, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Apr 21, 2025 to Oct 21, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
3%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files