Only 6 months left for this question. Further down for assage of time without any promising news.
-0.232916
Relative Brier Score
1046
Forecasts
193
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 29 | 139 | 1462 | 1046 | 2239 |
| Comments | 0 | 4 | 92 | 55 | 177 |
| Questions Forecasted | 27 | 27 | 80 | 52 | 129 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 9 | 280 | 193 | 622 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
(-5%)
Yes
65%
(+5%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(0%)
Yes
60%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(0%)
Yes
50%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 24%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
19%
(-16%)
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
81%
(+16%)
More than or equal to 28%
Just recognized, that I had started this far lower than the crowd. Going a little sharper than usually intended to at least partially compensate for that.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
1%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
1%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
4%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
96%
(0%)
Yes
4%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
If there was any kind of direct attacks between both sides, this would 100% be part of the show. And the chances for that have increased with the Nasrallah killing.