RAND Forecasting Initiative

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:22PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	1%	+2%	+0%
No	97%	99%	-2%	+0%

Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:22PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	37%	38%	-1%	+0%
No	63%	62%	+1%	+0%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:22PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025	Dec 20, 2024	12%	+3%	-2%
No	85%	Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025	Dec 20, 2024	88%	-3%	+2%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:23PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025	Dec 20, 2024	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025	Dec 20, 2024	99%	+0%	+0%

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:24PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	21%	Nov 20, 2024 to Nov 20, 2025	Dec 20, 2024	24%	-3%	+2%
No	79%	Nov 20, 2024 to Nov 20, 2025	Dec 20, 2024	76%	+3%	-2%

How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:26PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 59	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	9%	8%	+2%	-1%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	27%	27%	+0%	+0%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive	37%	37%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 90	26%	27%	-1%	+1%

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:27PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 9%	1%	1%	+0%	0%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive	17%	19%	-2%	-1%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive	72%	72%	+0%	+0%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive	9%	8%	+1%	+1%
More than or equal to 40%	1%	0%	+1%	+0%

Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(8 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:27PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	23%	31%	-8%	+6%
No	77%	69%	+8%	-6%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:28PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kharkiv	3%	3%	0%	+0%
Kyiv	1%	1%	+0%	0%
Odesa	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:28PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	1%	+1%	0%
No	98%	99%	-1%	0%

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