Forecasted Questions
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:47PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Nov 20, 2024 03:47PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2026 | Feb 20, 2025 | 12% | +2% | +0% |
| No | 86% | Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2026 | Feb 20, 2025 | 88% | -2% | +0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts
15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:48PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Nov 20, 2024 03:48PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 8% | 0% | +0% |
| No | 92% | 92% | 0% | +0% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:51PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Nov 20, 2024 03:51PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | Nov 20, 2024 to Nov 20, 2025 | Feb 20, 2025 | 12% | +2% | -2% |
| No | 86% | Nov 20, 2024 to Nov 20, 2025 | Feb 20, 2025 | 88% | -2% | +2% |
Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(8 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(8 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:52PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Nov 20, 2024 03:52PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 26% | 37% | -11% | +11% |
| No | 74% | 63% | +11% | -11% |
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:52PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Nov 20, 2024 03:52PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 5% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 95% | 95% | +0% | +0% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts
17 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:54PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Nov 20, 2024 03:54PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 03:55PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Nov 20, 2024 03:55PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 57% | Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025 | Dec 20, 2024 | 57% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 43% | Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025 | Dec 20, 2024 | 43% | +0% | +0% |