Rene

Plenty of sources confirming the deployment of Wagner troops to Equatorial Guinea:

"A fresh push for business has resulted in a contract with the oil-rich Equatorial Guinea, where a 200-strong Africa Corps unit arrived last week."

https://www.thetimes.com/world/africa/article/wagner-group-releases-glossy-film-to-boost-membership-in-africa-pgrzj9pb7 / https://archive.ph/eyw81#selection-2023.0-2023.145

"Despite their poor reputation and self-interested motives, an increasing number of African countries have invited Russian mercenaries in the last five years. The most recent was Equatorial Guinea, where up to 200 Russian troops were said to have been deployed in August 2024 to protect the president and train presidential guards."

https://theconversation.com/russian-mercenaries-have-a-bad-reputation-but-some-african-regimes-still-employ-them-study-explores-why-243306

"Russia has deployed up to 200 military instructors to Equatorial Guinea in recent weeks to protect the presidency, sources told Reuters, showing Moscow is expanding its footprint in West Africa despite a recent defeat in Mali."

https://dzrh.com.ph/post/russian-power-creeps-across-west-africa-with-equatorial-guinea-mission

Keeping 15% on 'no' in case this wouldn't count somehow.

Having read the Bloomberg article he links to, I agree with @MrLittleTexas that a default might be delayed until after the elections, possibly in late 2025 or sometime in 2026.

Decreasing slightly now that North Korea has found another outlet for its bellicosity.

I do expect North Korea to try gaining Trump’s attention more directly, but military action against a South Korean island might not be effective.

Decreasing. No news, not even rumors.

I’m keeping my forecast at 1% because I prefer not to round down to zero. However, to be honest, I think the likelihood of him losing the presidency is less than 0.5%.