Rene

Once again, rumors abound but nothing substantial. As others have noted, there are good reasons to assume that Russia needs most of the SU-35s and S-400s for its own defenses, although the country will want to continue to export arms. It reportedly is going to deliver SU-35s to Algeria (although SU-57s were promised earlier). There’s speculation that these aircraft are specifically the 24 Su-35s originally destined for Egypt, which were later earmarked for Iran.

Iran might also have decided to spent its money on other items and/or focus on domestic production. Still, I think that Iran will try to leverage the recent Fath 360 missile shipments and get something in return. That might be the su-35s or the s-400s, but it could also be the transfer of additional nuclear technology or a tougher stance of Russia against Israeli airstrikes in Syria.

I'm going to move somewhat closer to consensus.

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/algerian-su35-reports-interpret

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russias-su-57-felon-stealth-fighter-could-be-headed-africa-212922

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/09/18/egyptian-su-35-fighters-are-becoming-a-nightmare-for-russia/

https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2024-september-16/

No change. Very likely, but will be difficult in this time frame.

I think that Prigozhin added something extra and not just bribes and money, but a local approach as well. Wagner worked with local media-partners to deliver Wagner- and Russia-friendly media content and wasn't hindered by the political machinations and power struggles in Moscow. Wagner was able to shape African public opinion, and the opinions of (military) leaders to be more favorable towards Russian actors, including Wagner forces. I think the remains of Wagner, and the Africa Corps, will be a lot less active and effective in onboarding new clients.

Adjusting a bit, persuaded by @ctsats and by the idea that the hight tide of coups is over for now.

As @VidurKapur noted, Russia is meddling in Armenia. It doesn't like the current administration and is actively -but so far futilely- supporting the opposition. After the debacle in Karabakh and Russia's role (or lack of it) in it, Armenia is increasingly distancing itself from Russia and Western influence is on the rise.

Although an invasion is very, very unlikely, especially since the Armenian government is not acting rashly and trade between the two countries is still increasing, I increase my forecast for that country a little bit. There is a risk of further destabilizing both Armenia and the broader region and that can have unintended consequences.

https://theins.ru/en/politics/274818

No signs of illness, no signs of power struggle. Keeping 1% for unexpected events.

Brazil and Spain under scrutiny for their ambiguous behavior. It only proves that the battle is over and Maduro has won. Keeping 1% for death by natural causes.

"...they have also avoided endorsing opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez’s claims that he won the race, fostering backlash at home and abroad from critics who say their alarmism about democracy should apply as equally to Venezuela’s socialist regime as it does to the far-right movements making gains from Europe to the Americas.

Sanchez, in particular, has found himself under intensifying scrutiny since his government struck a deal with Venezuela that allowed Gonzalez to flee to Spain earlier this month.

While the agreement granted Gonzalez asylum, it also removed the biggest hurdle facing Maduro’s quest to remain in power and cast a spotlight on the Spanish left’s links to the regime: Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, the former prime minister and Sanchez partymate who led the talks with Caracas, has long expressed sympathy for the Venezuelan government.

Sanchez’s government is now facing fierce blowback over the release of photos showing that Spain allowed Maduro acolytes Delcy and Jorge Rodriguez into its ambassadors’ residence to negotiate Gonzalez’s exit, especially after Gonzalez said he was forced to sign a document accepting a court ruling that recognized Maduro’s victory.

The episode has raised questions about the underlying intent of Spain’s strategy, and led an opposition leader in parliament to call for the resignation of Sanchez’s foreign affairs minister.

(...)

Lula has similarly advocated for a diplomatic resolution after years of arguing that the sanctions-heavy campaign waged by the U.S. disproportionately hurt ordinary Venezuelans while failing to loosen Maduro’s grip on power.

But he has struggled to overcome the perception that his long friendship with Maduro, whom he cast last year as a victim of a global "narrative,” is clouding Brazil’s approach."

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/09/25/world/politics/brazil-spain-criticism-maduro/

From what I've learned from the other 'Open RAN' questions, Huawei is in not hurry to adopt Open RAN for several reasons:

1) it might make it easier for (western) countries to replace Huawei's equipment with O-RAN equipment from other companies

2) It would mean a slowdown in innovation, where it is currently ahead of competition

3) O-RANs marketshare is still pretty small, especially outside Europe and the US

No news, going down for passage of time