Rene

Rene Scheffers
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Relative Brier Score

429

Forecasts

115

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 45 154 429 429 429
Comments 1 2 12 12 12
Questions Forecasted 34 34 35 35 35
Upvotes on Comments By This User 10 36 115 115 115
 Definitions
New Prediction
Rene
made their 18th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Kharkiv
0% (0%)
Kyiv
0% (0%)
Odesa
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Rene
made their 12th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
5% (0%)
Less than or equal to 9%
25% (0%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
58% (0%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
10% (0%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
2% (0%)
More than or equal to 40%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Rene
made their 10th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
5% (0%)
Less than or equal to 49
10% (0%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
50% (0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
30% (0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
5% (0%)
More than or equal to 80
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Rene
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
2% (0%)
Less than or equal to 59
12% (0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
28% (0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
28% (0%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
30% (0%)
More than or equal to 90
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Rene
made their 15th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
3% (0%)
Moldova
2% (0%)
Armenia
5% (0%)
Georgia
2% (0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Rene
made their 20th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
65% (0%)
Yes
35% (0%)
No

Nvidia’s Q3 revenue surged 94% year-over-year to $35.08 billion, driven by explosive growth in its data center business, which more than doubled to $30.8 billion. While earnings and margins exceeded expectations, investor enthusiasm was muted due to Nvidia’s high valuation and the pressure to maintain its exceptional performance. The launch of its Blackwell chips highlights its technological edge but reveals supply constraints that may limit short-term growth despite strong demand. Long-term, Nvidia remains dominant, powering 95% of global AI models and benefiting from global AI investments and a $38.5 billion cash reserve. However, risks from intensifying competition, geopolitical tensions, and macroeconomic uncertainties could challenge its sustained growth.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/20/nvidia-nvda-earnings-report-q3-2025.html

https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/why-nvidias-story-is-far-from-over-21112024

https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/11/21/nvidias-strong-earnings-fall-short-of-lofty-investor-expectations

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New Prediction
Rene
made their 9th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
18% (+3%)
Yes
Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025
82% (-3%)
No
Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025

Small adjustment

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New Prediction

The presentation was interesting, but it didn’t offer any new information that changed my perspective. I have no doubt that China will eventually succeed in developing commercially viable DUV and EUV machines, but it will take time. Some processes simply can’t be accelerated beyond a certain point, no matter how much money is invested. In my view, it will likely take them a few years longer than the timeframe suggested in this question..

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