Rene

Current status:

NVIDIA's market cap continues to grow at a faster rate than Apple's and Microsoft's. There are no signs yet that its customers are having second thoughts about their investments in AI.

Going lower. There's probably going to be plenty of competition between US companies, pushing Chines models to lower positions.

Passage of time

Forgot to adapt my forecast. I think that the strain on Russia's military resources, particularly due to other engagements like the Ukraine conflict, means that Moscow will struggle to commit enough troops or support for operations in new countries.

Overall, this likely means that the situation in these countries will continue to worsen, with the influence and threat posed by jihadist groups increasing. Consequently, this will elevate the risk for other nations, particularly in Europe.

Interesting article on the Russian strategy in the Sahel. TLDR; Russian military interventions in Africa, particularly in the Sahel, mirror Soviet-era strategies by prioritizing regime security through elite-focused support, such as the Wagner Group, rather than building broad stability. This approach, marked by aggressive tactics, has led to civilian casualties, eroded state trust, and fueled insurgent growth. Limitations include a lack of comprehensive strategies to address local conflicts and insufficient resources, which undermine effectiveness and contribute to regional instability, posing long-term challenges for sustaining Russian influence. 

https://samf.substack.com/p/failure-in-the-sahel?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=sig1&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email