145th
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Revmag

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Forecasted Questions
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Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 17, 2024 10:04AM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 17, 2024 10:04AM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 0% 2%
Latvia 0% 1%
Lithuania 0% 1%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 17, 2024 10:04AM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Moldova 7% 8%
Armenia 0% 2%
Georgia 7% 4%
Kazakhstan 0% 2%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 17, 2024 10:04AM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kharkiv 4% 4%
Kyiv 2% 1%
Odesa 1% 3%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 12:18PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 1% 1%
Oman 1% 2%
Qatar 1% 1%
Saudi Arabia 6% 2%
Tunisia 1% 1%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 12:18PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 4%
No 100% Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 96%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 12:18PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Jan 30, 2025 0%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 12:18PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 4% 1%
No 96% 99%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 12:18PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 3% 1%
No 97% 99%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 12:18PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 4% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 96% 99%
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