RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:28AM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Argentina	13%	16%	-3%	-4%
Bolivia	20%	22%	-2%	-3%
Ecuador	14%	12%	+2%	-3%

Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:33AM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Angola	9%	11%	-2%	+0%
Kenya	11%	9%	+2%	-1%
Ethiopia	46%	35%	+11%	-4%
Nigeria	3%	5%	-2%	+0%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:34AM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	21%	34%	-13%	+12%
No	79%	66%	+13%	-12%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 07:44AM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 07:44AM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	0%	2%	-2%	-1%
Latvia	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Lithuania	0%	2%	-2%	+0%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 07:44AM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	7%	7%	+0%	+0%
Armenia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Georgia	7%	4%	+3%	+0%
Kazakhstan	0%	2%	-2%	+0%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 07:44AM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kharkiv	4%	3%	+1%	+0%
Kyiv	2%	1%	+1%	+0%
Odesa	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(9 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 06:56PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	23%	27%	-4%	+1%
No	77%	73%	+4%	-1%

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 12:30PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	16%	Nov 20, 2024 to Nov 20, 2025	Dec 20, 2024	24%	-8%	+2%
No	84%	Nov 20, 2024 to Nov 20, 2025	Dec 20, 2024	76%	+8%	-2%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 12:37PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025	Dec 20, 2024	12%	-4%	-2%
No	92%	Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025	Dec 20, 2024	88%	+4%	+2%

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