Forecasted Questions
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 08:38AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 08:38AM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 68% | 39% | +29% | +0% |
| No | 32% | 61% | -29% | +0% |
What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 08:50AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 08:50AM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 9% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 10% and 19%, inclusive | 12% | 19% | -7% | +1% |
| Between 20% and 29%, inclusive | 76% | 72% | +4% | +1% |
| Between 30% and 39%, inclusive | 12% | 8% | +4% | -1% |
| More than or equal to 40% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 08:58AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 08:58AM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 49 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 50 and 59, inclusive | 15% | 12% | +3% | +0% |
| Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 63% | 55% | +8% | +0% |
| Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 22% | 31% | -9% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 80 | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:08AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 09:08AM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | 9% | +6% | +0% |
| No | 85% | 91% | -6% | +0% |
Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:13AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 09:13AM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | 25% | -10% | +7% |
| No | 85% | 75% | +10% | -7% |
Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:22AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 09:22AM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 45% | 44% | +1% | +1% |
| No | 55% | 56% | -1% | -1% |
Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:28AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 09:28AM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 13% | 20% | -7% | +0% |
| Bolivia | 20% | 23% | -3% | -2% |
| Ecuador | 14% | 12% | +2% | -2% |
Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:33AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 09:33AM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angola | 9% | 10% | -1% | -1% |
| Kenya | 11% | 9% | +2% | -1% |
| Ethiopia | 46% | 36% | +10% | -3% |
| Nigeria | 3% | 4% | -1% | -1% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:34AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 09:34AM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 21% | 27% | -6% | +5% |
| No | 79% | 73% | +6% | -5% |