RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 12:19PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	11%	-6%	-1%
No	95%	89%	+6%	+1%

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 12:19PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	44%	37%	+7%	+1%
No	56%	63%	-7%	-1%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 12:19PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025	Jan 30, 2025	8%	-2%	-1%
No	94%	Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025	Jan 30, 2025	92%	+2%	+1%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 12:19PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	9%	5%	+4%	+0%
No	91%	95%	-4%	+0%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 12:19PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	23%	+7%	-1%
No	70%	77%	-7%	+1%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 12:21PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	11%	Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025	Jan 30, 2025	22%	-11%	-7%
No	89%	Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025	Jan 30, 2025	78%	+11%	+7%

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 08:18AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 24%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%	0%	2%	-2%	+1%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%	0%	6%	-6%	+1%
More than or equal to 28%	100%	92%	+8%	-2%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 08:22AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana	0%	3%	-3%	+0%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells	2%	4%	-2%	+0%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 08:23AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	99%	+1%	+0%

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 08:29AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	50%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	51%	-1%	+5%
No	50%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	49%	+1%	-5%

Revmag

About: