Forecasted Questions
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 12:18PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 12:18PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 12:18PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 12:18PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 6% | 9% | -3% | +0% |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 8% | 7% | +1% | +0% |
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 12:18PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 12:18PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 6% | -1% | -5% |
| No | 95% | Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 94% | +1% | +5% |
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 12:18PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 12:18PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Jan 30, 2025 | 5% | -3% | -1% |
| No | 98% | Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Jan 30, 2025 | 95% | +3% | +1% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 12:19PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 12:19PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 12:19PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 12:19PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 100% | Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 100% | +0% | +0% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 12:19PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 12:19PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | 97% | +3% | +1% |
| No | 0% | 3% | -3% | -1% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 12:19PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 12:19PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 5% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 97% | 95% | +2% | +0% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts
14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 12:19PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 12:19PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +0% |
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 12:19PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 12:19PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 100% | +0% | +0% |