Forecasted Questions
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 08:03AM UTC
(30 days ago)
Sep 01, 2024 08:03AM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025 | Oct 1, 2024 | 0% | +1% | +0% |
No | 99% | Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025 | Oct 1, 2024 | 100% | -1% | +0% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 08:03AM UTC
(30 days ago)
Sep 01, 2024 08:03AM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 08:03AM UTC
(30 days ago)
Sep 01, 2024 08:03AM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Estonia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +1% |
Latvia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Lithuania | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 08:03AM UTC
(30 days ago)
Sep 01, 2024 08:03AM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Moldova | 7% | 7% | +0% | -2% |
Armenia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Georgia | 7% | 3% | +4% | -1% |
Kazakhstan | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 08:03AM UTC
(30 days ago)
Sep 01, 2024 08:03AM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kharkiv | 4% | 4% | +0% | -1% |
Kyiv | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
Odesa | 1% | 1% | +0% | -2% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 03:58PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Sep 25, 2024 03:58PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kuwait | 1% | 2% | -1% | 0% |
Oman | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Qatar | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Saudi Arabia | 6% | 3% | +3% | +0% |
Tunisia | 1% | 1% | +0% | 0% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 03:58PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Sep 25, 2024 03:58PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025 | Oct 25, 2024 | 1% | -1% | +0% |
No | 100% | Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025 | Oct 25, 2024 | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 03:58PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Sep 25, 2024 03:58PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025 | Dec 25, 2024 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 03:58PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Sep 25, 2024 03:58PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 4% | 1% | +3% | +0% |
No | 96% | 99% | -3% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 03:58PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Sep 25, 2024 03:58PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 3% | 1% | +2% | +0% |
No | 97% | 99% | -2% | +0% |