133rd
Accuracy Rank

SOUZACaio

About:
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2.862232

Relative Brier Score

37

Forecasts

1

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 1 33 297 258 546
Comments 0 2 11 11 75
Questions Forecasted 1 33 59 51 89
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 15 13 25
 Definitions
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SOUZACaio
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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SOUZACaio
earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Oct 2024

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
SOUZACaio
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
73% (+48%)
Yes
Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025
27% (-48%)
No
Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025

Netanyahu's appetite for war does not have end. After more than forty thousand of deaths in Gaza as well as spreading of his war to Lebanon, he already ordered attacks in Iranian soil, like the murder of Hamas leader, or directly to Iranian officials in Syria. Also, already happened a couple of bombardment of small impact, due Iranian defense capability to response, in recent months and an invasion in a nuclear facility in within Iranian soil by Israeli spies became public recently. These are clear evidence that Iran is vulnerable to attacks and fail of defense. Moreover, for so many times Israel performed attacks in Iranian territory in recent past, including in a nuclear facility, done through software tools. 

Therefore, considering all these reasons as well as the Israel necessity to show itself as biggest power of Middle East, Netanyahu's wish to prolong this ongoing war, Western and Eastern disagreements on Iran government mainly on its nuclear program, and the evident weakness of Iranian capacity to defend itself, an attack at Iranian nuclear facility is likely. 

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Russia has almost frozen its participation in the ongoing conflict against Ukraine due several difficulties at the battlefield, especially the lack of troops. Moreover, defeat Ukraine has been harder than expected by Russia in the beginning of the war, not just for Western aid, however also by Ukrainians' efforts. For now, with the near winter, will be virtually imposed more Russia advances in soil. Then, the probability of Russia launches a ground offensive in these regions is low.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

As an attempt of show power and capacity, Russia decide to go beyond its current capabilities and initiate a ground offensive in these areas prior attacked by it.

Files
New Prediction
SOUZACaio
made their 9th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Oct 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Oct 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
SOUZACaio
made their 9th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
SOUZACaio
made their 9th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
SOUZACaio
made their 12th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7% (0%)
Yes
Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025
93% (0%)
No
Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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