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121st
Accuracy Rank

SOUZACaio

About:
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2.862232

Relative Brier Score

37

Forecasts

1

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 1 30 310 225 513
Comments 0 0 10 9 73
Questions Forecasted 1 28 56 44 82
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 3 16 13 25
 Definitions
New Prediction
Show more
New Prediction
SOUZACaio
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
72% (+64%)
Yes
Sep 23, 2024 to Sep 23, 2025
28% (-64%)
No
Sep 23, 2024 to Sep 23, 2025

The last facts are indicating that Israel, led by Netanyahu, is in a level of imminent war against Hezbollah. Nowadays is seeming that Netanyahu, who has personal interests in the prolonging of this ongoing chaotic situation, wants this more than the far-right coalition that supports his government.

Is crystal clear that the explosions of walkie-talkie and pagers of Hezbollah's members as well as other attacks are actions to ignite some kind of reprisal by the Lebanese group and, possibly, Iran that already had its territorial sovereignty violated by Israeli military actions. Moreover, Israel is conducting its troops toward Lebanon's borders as well as performing so many air raids in the last hours.

Therefore, launching of missiles on Israeli land or even an act of reprisal by this group will be faced as a declaration of war against the Jewish State, justifying strong military actions done by Israel. So, the prolonging of this current war will exist, the prime minister will remain himself on power, and the far-right coalition, which is being benefited by Netanyahu.

Albeit exist strong condemnation as well as discontentment within Israeli society on this ongoing panorama, still there is social support and international accordance for a war against Hezbollah and, indirectly, Iran.

Obviously, such scenario can change drastically and quickly. Hezbollah can be quiet even after Israeli air raids. However, evidence is appointing to an imminent conflict between them.

Files
New Prediction
SOUZACaio
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
76% (+64%)
Yes
Sep 23, 2024 to Mar 23, 2025
24% (-64%)
No
Sep 23, 2024 to Mar 23, 2025

The last facts are indicating that Israel, led by Netanyahu, is in a level of imminent war against Hezbollah. Nowadays is seeming that Netanyahu, who has personal interests in the prolonging of this ongoing chaotic situation, wants this more than the far-right coalition that supports his government. 

Is crystal clear that the explosions of walkie-talkie and pagers of Hezbollah's members as well as other attacks are actions to ignite some kind of reprisal by the Lebanese group and, possibly, Iran that already had its territorial sovereignty violated by Israeli military actions. Moreover, Israel is conducting its troops toward Lebanon's borders as well as performing so many air raids in the last hours.

Therefore, launching of missiles on Israeli land or even an act of reprisal by this group will be faced as a declaration of war against the Jewish State, justifying strong military actions done by Israel. So, the prolonging of this current war will exist, the prime minister will remain himself on power, and the far-right coalition, which is being benefited by Netanyahu.

Albeit exist strong condemnation as well as discontentment within Israeli society on this ongoing panorama, still there is social support and international accordance for a war against Hezbollah and, indirectly, Iran. 

Obviously, such scenario can change drastically and quickly. Hezbollah can be quiet even after Israeli air raids. However, evidence is appointing to an imminent conflict between them.

Files
New Prediction
SOUZACaio
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25% (0%)
Yes
Sep 23, 2024 to Mar 23, 2025
75% (0%)
No
Sep 23, 2024 to Mar 23, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
SOUZACaio
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Sep 23, 2024 to Sep 23, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Sep 23, 2024 to Sep 23, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
SOUZACaio
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Sep 23, 2024 to Mar 23, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Sep 23, 2024 to Mar 23, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
SOUZACaio
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Sep 23, 2024 to Mar 23, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Sep 23, 2024 to Mar 23, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
SOUZACaio
made their 11th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7% (0%)
Yes
Sep 23, 2024 to Mar 23, 2025
93% (0%)
No
Sep 23, 2024 to Mar 23, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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