133rd
Accuracy Rank

SOUZACaio

About:
Show more

3.001039

Relative Brier Score

251

Forecasts

11

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 19 45 312 277 565
Comments 1 2 12 12 76
Questions Forecasted 19 33 59 51 89
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 14 13 25
 Definitions
New Prediction
SOUZACaio
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
56% (-5%)
Yes
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
44% (+5%)
No
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025

Coup d'état in Africa nations may happen in anytime due some reasons like non-consolidate constitutions, tribal and ethnic conflicts, foreign interests or even within dissatisfaction by army or other armed group. In recent times, this abruptly way to shake democratic institutions seems to be frozen in Sahel region as well as near countries. 

Nonetheless, still exist some places where coup d'état may occur in a near future: in RDC, rebel movements can shake the government through foreign aid; in Mozambique demonstrations and social confront took the streets, what may ignite a change of government, although the army remains supporting president; in Zimbabwe also exits allegations of unfair elections, which may trigger some dissatisfaction within army due to rest of some political structures. That is, there are so many countries where coup d'état is possible in African continent, where some political arrangements that remain for decades are no more accepted by their populations, mainly the youngest.

Files
SOUZACaio
made a comment:

Thanks for remember me. I really forgot this when I wrote the forecasts. I already did the correction.

Have a good one!

Files
New Prediction
SOUZACaio
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast will expire on Dec 21, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7% (0%)
Yes
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
93% (0%)
No
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
SOUZACaio
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
5% (0%)
Moldova
1% (0%)
Armenia
7% (0%)
Georgia
1% (0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
SOUZACaio
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Estonia
1% (0%)
Latvia
1% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
SOUZACaio
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3% (0%)
Yes
Nov 21, 2024 to Nov 21, 2025
97% (0%)
No
Nov 21, 2024 to Nov 21, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
SOUZACaio
made their 12th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
SOUZACaio
made their 12th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
SOUZACaio
made their 12th forecast (view all):
This forecast will expire on Feb 21, 2025
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
SOUZACaio
made their 14th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
10% (+8%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
4% (+3%)
Su-35 fighter jets

Russia is facing several difficulties in battlefield in its aggression of Ukranian territorial sovereignty, which make harder the deliverance of fighter jets and missile system to Iran. On the other hand, it is receiving drones of attack and support by Iran.

Nonetheless, in recent times a series of episodes showed how Iran is weak in comparison with its neighbor as well as needing urgently of these military equipment, especially missile systems. Iran has suffered so many attacks in its own soil by Israeli forces for several years as well as has no capacity to defend itself due the superiority of its enemy. The most recent happening, Israel destroyed part of Iranian missile system, harming an important piece of its defense against air attacks. So, Iran may enforce Russia to deliver the S-400 or S-500 quickly, even Russia having difficulties at Ukranian front, toward the urgently reequipment of its defense system. However, both fighter jets as missile systems are more expensive than Iran can reach as well as their complexe way of transportation and installation delayed for more time than 31 February. 

Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username