SOUZACaio

The European Union's policy to reduce drastically the Russian dependence of natural gas has been reached. Month by month, we have seen a massive reduction of the imports of natural gas, since the beginning of Russian invasion in Ukraine. So, a number of this magnitude, as described in the question, will not be achieved by 31 December.

Putin's decision to invade Ukraine gave new meaning to NATO. Since the beginning of the war, countries started to rearm themselves, including historical peaceful nations. The Russian conquering of Ukrainian territory, even under difficulties faced by the aggressor, ignited European needing to dedicate more budget and efforts to their defense. In the same way, if a ceasefire or a peace agreement were in next weeks signed by belligerent and interested countries, the fear of a new possible Russian invasion will remain.

On the other hand, as in his first term, Trump has done pressure toward more defense spending by NATO members. Obviously, it means that they must buy more weapons, military equipment, and defense systems from the United States, mainly, or form other countries. At the same time, he performs business trips selling American made products and opening markets, especially representing American defense companies.

Thus, any scenario drawn in the future will be translated into more defensive efforts and acquisition of military material, specially from the Americans enterprises. 

Some G20 nations decided to recognize Palestinian statehood under increasing chaos perpetuated by Israel months ago, during the genocide committed in Gaza Strip. Now, after a ceasefire agreement signed by Israel, which intentionally performed a massacre of Palestinians, as well as the American guarantees of a real end of hostilities and contention of belligerent actions, resulted in a decreasing auspicious of Palestine recognition.

Although there are so many evidence of war crimes held in Gaza strip, possibilities to reignite the war due consequent violations of the ceasefire signed, and the Israeli settlement policy evokes again the recognition of Palestinian statehood, the current outlook expose lethargy by those G20 countries that still not recognize Palestine as State. Therefore, there is no more signals of statements toward Palestinian statehood.

Middle East and North Africa are completely drawn by a net of distrust, instability, grievances, and external influences. Both regions have open conflicts and resentment among nations, especially deepened by Israeli Genocide in Gaza Strip and its policy of settlers in West Bank, within political strive among different oligarchies or current or imminent civil wars with groups supported by neighbor nations.

Thus, excluding all countries listed above, any agreement becomes hard to be signed due possible security threats that all region States own. Who writes this forecast just sees the signing of agreements among Jordan and Lebanon or Syria as possible in the future. As part of the Western policy to solve regional problems, these three countries may sign diplomatic documents toward strengthening Syria and Lebanon as States without Iranian influences; Jordanian officials would sign these kinds of agreements due to its good relations with the United States.  

Recently, countries of the region stated that would create a kind of NATO in Middle East, due air raids performed by Israel in Qatar. Though, after talks among the American president, leaders from gulf countries, and Israel, the hostile scenario done by Israeli foreign attacks vanished, due American guarantee that Israel will no more its near nations, neither spread more war and insecurity regionally. An Israeli war against Iran with external support is waited for so many analysts, but, due several disagreements and threats that the Persian nation represents, no Middle East countries would be in its defense.