3.001039
Relative Brier Score
251
Forecasts
11
Upvotes
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Active Forecaster
Power Forecaster - Oct 2024
Netanyahu's appetite for war does not have end. After more than forty thousand of deaths in Gaza as well as spreading of his war to Lebanon, he already ordered attacks in Iranian soil, like the murder of Hamas leader, or directly to Iranian officials in Syria. Also, already happened a couple of bombardment of small impact, due Iranian defense capability to response, in recent months and an invasion in a nuclear facility in within Iranian soil by Israeli spies became public recently. These are clear evidence that Iran is vulnerable to attacks and fail of defense. Moreover, for so many times Israel performed attacks in Iranian territory in recent past, including in a nuclear facility, done through software tools.
Therefore, considering all these reasons as well as the Israel necessity to show itself as biggest power of Middle East, Netanyahu's wish to prolong this ongoing war, Western and Eastern disagreements on Iran government mainly on its nuclear program, and the evident weakness of Iranian capacity to defend itself, an attack at Iranian nuclear facility is likely.
Why do you think you're right?
Russia has almost frozen its participation in the ongoing conflict against Ukraine due several difficulties at the battlefield, especially the lack of troops. Moreover, defeat Ukraine has been harder than expected by Russia in the beginning of the war, not just for Western aid, however also by Ukrainians' efforts. For now, with the near winter, will be virtually imposed more Russia advances in soil. Then, the probability of Russia launches a ground offensive in these regions is low.
Why might you be wrong?
As an attempt of show power and capacity, Russia decide to go beyond its current capabilities and initiate a ground offensive in these areas prior attacked by it.