95th
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ShamirS21

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0.04256

Relative Brier Score

10

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1

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Forecasts 0 1 15 10 63
Comments 0 0 0 0 0
Questions Forecasted 0 1 13 8 24
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Yes, Chinese organizations are working to produce EUV photolithography machines: China is looking to manufacture its own EUV machines to compete with ASML, the world's largest producer of photolithography machines. However, some say that it would be extremely difficult for China to replicate ASML because the country lacks the know-how. ASML has never sold its most advanced EUV machines to Chinese customers due to previous restrictions.
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ShamirS21
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
10%
Togo
90%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
The Wagner Group and Africa Corps have been actively involved in various African countries, and their potential deployment to Togo or another African country before January 1, 2026, is uncertain. However, we can look at their past activities to gauge the likelihood. The Wagner Group has operated in several African countries, including the Central African Republic, Sudan, Libya, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mozambique ¹. After the death of their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, in 2023, much of Wagner Group operations and personnel in Africa were folded into Russia's Ministry of Defense under the newly-created Africa Corps ². Africa Corps has already been deployed to multiple countries, including Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Libya ². Their involvement in these countries has raised concerns about Russia's growing influence in Africa and potential human rights abuses. Considering their existing presence in several African countries, it's possible that Wagner Group or Africa Corps might deploy to additional countries. Togo, being a strategic location in West Africa, could potentially be a target for their expansion. *Countries with existing Wagner Group or Africa Corps presence:* - _Central African Republic_: Wagner Group has been involved in training government forces and providing security services ¹. - _Sudan_: Wagner Group has been linked to gold and diamond mining, as well as supporting the Sudanese military ¹. - _Libya_: Africa Corps has been deployed to support the Libyan government ². - _Mali_, _Burkina Faso_, and _Niger_: Africa Corps has been deployed to these countries to support local governments ². While there's no concrete evidence of an imminent deployment to Togo or another African country, the Wagner Group and Africa Corps' history suggests they might continue expanding their influence in the region.
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ShamirS21
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Sep 27, 2024 02:07PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (-14%)
Yes
Aug 27, 2024 to Feb 27, 2025
99% (+14%)
No
Aug 27, 2024 to Feb 27, 2025
it's important to note that an attack on Taiwan would have significant international implications and would likely be widely condemned.
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This forecast expired on Aug 31, 2024 05:32AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
Yes
Jul 31, 2024 to Jan 31, 2025
85%
No
Jul 31, 2024 to Jan 31, 2025
China’s military, the People’s Liberation Army, has increased the scale and sophistication of its military drills around Taiwan in recent years, honing its combat capabilities. As the prospect of gaining control of Taiwan peacefully becomes more remote, with Taiwanese identity rising and Taiwanese interest in unifying with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) declining, China could conclude that using force is the only way to achieve its political objectives.
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