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ShamirS21

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1.442208

Relative Brier Score

62

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 1 1 14 9 62
Comments 0 0 0 0 0
Questions Forecasted 1 1 12 7 23
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 0
 Definitions


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New Prediction
ShamirS21
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
10%
Togo
90%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
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New Prediction
ShamirS21
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Sep 27, 2024 02:07PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (-14%)
Yes
Aug 27, 2024 to Feb 27, 2025
99% (+14%)
No
Aug 27, 2024 to Feb 27, 2025
it's important to note that an attack on Taiwan would have significant international implications and would likely be widely condemned.
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New Prediction
ShamirS21
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Aug 31, 2024 05:32AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
Yes
Jul 31, 2024 to Jan 31, 2025
85%
No
Jul 31, 2024 to Jan 31, 2025
China’s military, the People’s Liberation Army, has increased the scale and sophistication of its military drills around Taiwan in recent years, honing its combat capabilities. As the prospect of gaining control of Taiwan peacefully becomes more remote, with Taiwanese identity rising and Taiwanese interest in unifying with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) declining, China could conclude that using force is the only way to achieve its political objectives.
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New Prediction
ShamirS21
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
90% (0%)
Yes
10% (0%)
No
The Venezuelan president has managed to double his voting intention, which was low at the beginning of the year, thanks to his government's measures to serve dissatisfied sectors, according to experts. The opposition remains above 50% of voting intention
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According to the trends shown by surveys conducted among voters in Venezuela, the leadership of candidates is headed by Maduro, having a notable advantage over his opponents.
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