SPECIAL NOTICE: INFER is now the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI). Learn more about RFI.
 

Tim-Mullan

Tim Mullan
About:
Show more

-0.001537

Relative Brier Score

8

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 8 8 8
Comments 0 0 4 4 4
Questions Forecasted 0 0 5 5 5
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 0
 Definitions


New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Tim-Mullan
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Sep 2, 2024 02:50PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8% (0%)
Yes
Aug 2, 2024 to Feb 2, 2025
92% (0%)
No
Aug 2, 2024 to Feb 2, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Tim-Mullan
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Tim-Mullan
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Aug 2, 2024 to Aug 2, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Aug 2, 2024 to Aug 2, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Neither the geo political area, the Islamic world, the United States, nor the world economy will tolerate the continuation of the current situation.  Even now, the post conflict retelling of this situation will require serious manipulation in order to be accommodated within the western and Islamic super egos.  If we progress very much farther, Israel will either need to be excommunicated (unthinkable) or the west will need to shift its moral base (also unthinkable), or an even larger news event would need to take center stage.  This is possible but right now, I think, unlikely as it would almost certainly be escalation in the Ukraine and that would mean use of nuclear warheads or invasion of Sweden or Finland.  Alternatively, a natural cataclysm... Again, unlikely but not impossible.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Israel might carefully balance international opinion through the use of multiple cease fires under 30 days in length.  However, given the length of time at play, I don't think it will be possible to create a convincing enough smokescreen to allow the rest of the world to continue to willfully ignore the genocide in Gaza.

Files
New Prediction
Tim-Mullan
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Mar 13, 2024 08:25PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
Yes
Feb 13, 2024 to Aug 13, 2024
92%
No
Feb 13, 2024 to Aug 13, 2024
Why do you think you're right?

Unlikely, as previous protests will be at least partly the result of foreign interference and the Western states will have backed off so as not to further increase chaos and unpredictable outcomes (tinder keg).  Russia possibly has competing interests but overall, I posit they will be unlikely to attempt to escalate.  While internal elements will be pro protest and there is arguably more reason to protest now then normally, I believe the spirit of self protection and nationalism will win out over pro Islamic fervour and keep people in their homes.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

My understanding of Iranian self identity, or my understanding of Russia's appetite for chaos or any number of seemingly less plausible scenarios.

Files
New Prediction
Tim-Mullan
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on May 13, 2024 08:13PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Feb 13, 2024 to Feb 13, 2025
99%
No
Feb 13, 2024 to Feb 13, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Iran has developed a number of proxies through which to pursue armed conflict prayer is its national borders.  It will only enter into armed conflict it its own borders are directly threatened or some other unavoidable conflict

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Several scenarios; Iran's own borders are threatened, Islam Vs west conflict that it would lose face not to be directly involved in, successful agent provocateur scenario at the highest levels, progressively less likely scenarios 

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

I simply can't envisage a scenario where this eventually might occur within the time constraints

Files
Why might you be wrong?

The only way I think this would occur is if Israel publicly signals a desire to move to a two stage solution and I think this cannot happen within the time constraints

Files
New Badge
Tim-Mullan
earned a new badge:

My First Question

Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Badge
Tim-Mullan
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username