Noone seems to have the power to question him
0.102643
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
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Definitions |
Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Iran: Threats & Influence
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Iran-VNSAs
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Probability
Answer
0%
(-100%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Yes
Noone seems to have the power to question him
Files
you are right.
Files
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Why do you think you're right?
Significant disruption in Red sea. It will take some time before ships use the shorter route.
The question is asking for the level of the spike, not the level that things will ballance out
Why might you be wrong?
Sanctions on Russia, Chinese reopening, and OPEC+decissions where not enough to send oil higher than 90$. Winter is not as cold as in the past.