In the wake of the Navalny assassination, the disqualification of other political candidates, and the increasingly totalitarian turn in general that Putin has taken with respect to domestic affairs, it's tough not to see these things as acts of fear, weakness, and perhaps even a little desperation. Authoritarians often try to tighten their hold on power when they're in trouble, and I think it's unlikely that Putin is an exception to this. I think Putin has much to be afraid of at the moment----the state of the Russian economy, a potential increase in partisan activities at home, and his apparent lack of off-ramps diplomatically or militarily.
The Russian economy is steadily worsening despite significant central bank interventions, and at the time of this writing the ruble has nearly fallen all the way to being worth USD $.01, a mark which triggered central bank interventions the last time it was reached. I would argue that this is even more foreboding now, given how infre
While I think the threat posed to his regime by domestic unrest is meaningful, I think that his grip on health will likely fail him before his grip on power. Khamenei will turn 85 in 2024 (Britannica Biography), and while it's likely that he has access to better healthcare than most Iranian men, he has already outpaced the life expectancy for men both worldwide and in Iran (World Health Organization - Iran). Leading a country is undoubtedly stressful, and stress can heighten the risk of a serious health event like heart attack or stroke----which are the two most common killers of octogenarian men. Stress and obesity are exacerbating factors for these health events, and Khamenei appears to experience plenty of both. His physical health has been known to be shaky for more than 10 years, at times gravely so including a bout with prostate cancer in 2014 and a series of illnesses in 2022-23 (France 24). Considering these factors, I'm not bullish on Khamenei's chances of surviving for much more than a year from the time of writing.