Trump has already indicated that he would not oppose an invasion of Taiwan. So if Trump wins a Taiwan invasion is the most likely next step. But it may not happen at the start of his presidency. It will happen later when they are distracted by US local issues
-0.026471
Relative Brier Score
14
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
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New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
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This forecast expired on Aug 29, 2024 09:35PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Jul 29, 2024 to Jan 29, 2025
99%
No
Jul 29, 2024 to Jan 29, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-3%)
Yes
100%
(+3%)
No
Almost time is up
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(+89%)
Yes
10%
(-89%)
No
Microsoft starts telling employees to think about moving
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/microsoft-asks-hundreds-of-china-based-ai-staff-to-relocate-amid-u-s-china-tensions-b626ff8c?st=5hewt0npk1e448n&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
This is almost out of time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Yes
30%
No
Huawei will use the same strategy of Microsoft. Embrace. Extend. Extinguish. Control of the “open” standard is the best way to achieve that.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
No chance.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-2%)
Yes
97%
(+2%)
No
Time is running out. Only possible chance of this happening is a US election scandal involving AI
Files