They cannot afford the negative backlash from something like that.
0.001188
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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No forecasts in the past 3 months
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Most Active Topics:
Future Bowl
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 14, 2022 07:11PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Nov 14, 2022 to Dec 14, 2022
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
No because if there is another outbreak they can say they did everything they could to prevent it while other countries let up. Also due to their high population and history of mass outbreaks of infectious diseases they should be more cautious than others.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-10%)
Yes
Approval rating spike
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New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
His approval rating has only gone up since the events in Ukraine. These numbers have to be taken with a big grain of salt but I think he still could have the majority of approval from the people. There is also the possibility that the Russian people are more frustrated with foreign countries for making their life harder during this time rather than frustrated at Putin. It's hard to gauge this due to the potentially massive amount of misinformation, propaganda and misinformation.
He's 70 years old and seems very sharp. There is the possibility that he could die, which if that happens would mean that he is no longer president. However, while looking at the average life expectancy of presidents, they typically live longer than the average life expectancy of their governing country. So I do think it's unlikely that he will die but it's always a possibility.
In 2020 he won the right to extend his rule until 2036 with a massive majority in favor. I can't think of a
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They will wait for market recovery