Confirmed previous forecast
0.436076
Relative Brier Score
11
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Iran: Threats & Influence,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Iran-VNSAs,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Iran Nuclear Program
New Badge
Star Commenter - Feb 2024
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
(0%)
Yes
15%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
1%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 27, 2024 03:38PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 27, 2024 to Aug 27, 2024
90%
(0%)
No
Feb 27, 2024 to Aug 27, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 27, 2024 03:36PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2024
98%
(0%)
No
Feb 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
Yes
15%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Bibi will not survive in power all year with a prolonged war in 2024 without a cease fire no release of the hostages. The pressure internally and externally would increase exponentially as the months go by and the willingness from Hamas will also increase exponentially
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Hezbollah could attack and I could be underestimating Sinwar suicidal tendencies to engage in a no win jihad at all costs
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Only an assassination attempt would cause this event and after the events of last year the security and the paranoid is even more intense and Putin has purged a lot of the internal dissent.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
there could be a medical condition that i am not aware . It has been rumored but i dont think it would bkill him in a few months and he has been out on TV a lot recently
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
S-400 or S-500 missile system
1%
Su-35 fighter jets
Why do you think you're right?
2 factors: Russia is stretching its military resources at the moment and Israel would not sit idle and allow this game changer
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I could be underestimating the ties between the 2 countries and overestimating the capacity of Israel to do something to prevent it
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Iran is now on the defensive and have no interest in a broad or direct confrontation
Why might you be wrong?
a miscalculation from one of the sides