Confirmed previous forecast
-0.388469
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Russian Disinformation
New Prediction
How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 59
0%
(0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
43%
(0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
34%
(0%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
23%
(0%)
More than or equal to 90
Show more
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 59
0%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
43%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
34%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
23%
More than or equal to 90
Why do you think you're right?
Germany has a lot of misinformation due to Putin's overarching control of Russian media and limitations of civil society.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Germany has a strong international media presence, and Putin's re-election is coming up soon.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
President Putin has absolute control over all branches of Russia's government, and has filled said branches with loyalists. Additionally, his erosion of democracy has made these branches practically powerless to stop him from continuing his dictatorship.
Files
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