159th
Accuracy Rank

ansantillan

Andrés Santillán Reich
About:
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2.777467

Relative Brier Score

133

Forecasts

1

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 10 46 497 411 2193
Comments 1 2 22 19 576
Questions Forecasted 10 42 94 69 245
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 1 45 42 284
 Definitions
New Prediction
ansantillan
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 49
30%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
40%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
30%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 80

I'm staying relatively diversified for the time being. In my opinion, the main issue for this question is the possibility of peace being achieved in Ukraine and how the US will act when Trump gets into office.

On the other hand, if the conflicts widen out, it will clearly be a higher risk for Germany.

I´ll eliminate the two extremes because there is a big gap between the current risk index and 80+ or 49-

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New Prediction
ansantillan
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Nov 16, 2024 to May 16, 2025
90%
No
Nov 16, 2024 to May 16, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

The fact is that they will win nothing if they do a test. North Korea is known for being a nuclear power and although the recent tensions with Japan and South Korea might complicate things, I consider that the election of Trump will even reduce this possibility even more.

The focus of the regime seems to have shifted toward a more supportive role of their closest and really only allies (Russia and China), even though I would almost consider the relationship with Russia as an alliance based on necessity.

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Why might you be wrong?

It´s a rogue State in the international arena, so, you never know

Files
New Prediction
ansantillan
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Estonia
1% (0%)
Latvia
2% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
ansantillan
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
99% (0%)
Yes
1% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
ansantillan
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
9% (0%)
Moldova
1% (0%)
Armenia
2% (0%)
Georgia
1% (0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
ansantillan
made their 18th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Kuwait
1% (0%)
Oman
0% (0%)
Qatar
2% (0%)
Saudi Arabia
0% (0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
ansantillan
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (0%)
Yes
Nov 13, 2024 to May 13, 2025
95% (0%)
No
Nov 13, 2024 to May 13, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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