ansantillan

I would infer that with Trump´s election, the probability is lower.

Forecasting the confirmation that Wagner has entered Equatorial Guinea was reported by several people.

https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-power-creeps-across-west-africa-with-equatorial-guinea-mission-2024-11-12/

I'm staying relatively diversified for the time being. In my opinion, the main issue for this question is the possibility of peace being achieved in Ukraine and how the US will act when Trump gets into office.

On the other hand, if the conflicts widen out, it will clearly be a higher risk for Germany.

I´ll eliminate the two extremes because there is a big gap between the current risk index and 80+ or 49-

The fact is that they will win nothing if they do a test. North Korea is known for being a nuclear power and although the recent tensions with Japan and South Korea might complicate things, I consider that the election of Trump will even reduce this possibility even more.

The focus of the regime seems to have shifted toward a more supportive role of their closest and really only allies (Russia and China), even though I would almost consider the relationship with Russia as an alliance based on necessity.