SPECIAL NOTICE: INFER is now the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI). Learn more about RFI.
 
145th
Accuracy Rank

ansantillan

Andrés Santillán Reich
About:

Just graduated from university. I am currently an advisor on parliamentary diplomacy in the Mexican Senate. Interested in geopolitics mainly, however, I have growing interests in blockchain technology and new innovative techs. Trying to learn from the best.

Twitter LinkedIn
Show more
View All Badges »
2022 Season Stats

2.081984

Relative Brier Score

830

Forecasts

86

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 9 41 517 344 2126
Comments 0 0 20 15 139
Questions Forecasted 9 37 91 62 238
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 4 48 38 280
 Definitions
New Prediction
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
ansantillan made their 7th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Yes
99% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
ansantillan made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
3% (0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0% (0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0% (0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
ansantillan made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
ansantillan made their 13th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
ansantillan made their 13th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
1% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
99% (0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction

Backing up a bit.

Files
New Prediction
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
ansantillan made their 12th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4% (0%)
Yes
Sep 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2025
96% (0%)
No
Sep 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
ansantillan made their 11th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
90% (+20%)
Yes
Sep 23, 2024 to Sep 23, 2025
10% (-20%)
No
Sep 23, 2024 to Sep 23, 2025
Going even higher as death toll from the bombings increase. I'll be at 90% for both questions for the time being.
Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel