159th
Accuracy Rank

ansantillan

Andrés Santillán Reich
About:

Just graduated from university. I am currently an advisor on parliamentary diplomacy in the Mexican Senate. Interested in geopolitics mainly, however, I have growing interests in blockchain technology and new innovative techs. Trying to learn from the best.

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All Time Stats

3.0226

Relative Brier Score

2201

Forecasts

284

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 15 47 498 419 2201
Comments 1 2 22 19 576
Questions Forecasted 15 44 96 71 247
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 1 45 42 284
 Definitions

Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict, Science & Technology, Iran: Threats & Influence, Artificial Intelligence, China Politics, Relations, and Technology

Most Active Topics:
Iran Nuclear Program, Mission: Diplomacy, Microelectronics, Iran-VNSAs, Manufacturing

New Prediction
Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?
ansantillan made their 3rd forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
26% (0%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
72% (0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
2% (0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
ansantillan made their 10th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3% (0%)
Yes
Nov 22, 2024 to Nov 22, 2025
97% (0%)
No
Nov 22, 2024 to Nov 22, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
ansantillan made their 14th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (0%)
Yes
Nov 22, 2024 to May 22, 2025
98% (0%)
No
Nov 22, 2024 to May 22, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
ansantillan made their 15th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Nov 22, 2024 to May 22, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Nov 22, 2024 to May 22, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
ansantillan made their 13th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Nov 22, 2024 to May 22, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Nov 22, 2024 to May 22, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction

I would infer that with Trump´s election, the probability is lower.

Files
New Prediction
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
ansantillan made their 1st forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
23%
Togo
100%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations

Forecasting the confirmation that Wagner has entered Equatorial Guinea was reported by several people.

https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-power-creeps-across-west-africa-with-equatorial-guinea-mission-2024-11-12/

Files
New Prediction
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
ansantillan made their 13th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3% (0%)
Yes
Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025
97% (0%)
No
Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
ansantillan made their 1st forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 49
30%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
40%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
30%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 80

I'm staying relatively diversified for the time being. In my opinion, the main issue for this question is the possibility of peace being achieved in Ukraine and how the US will act when Trump gets into office.

On the other hand, if the conflicts widen out, it will clearly be a higher risk for Germany.

I´ll eliminate the two extremes because there is a big gap between the current risk index and 80+ or 49-

Files
New Prediction
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
ansantillan made their 1st forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Nov 16, 2024 to May 16, 2025
90%
No
Nov 16, 2024 to May 16, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

The fact is that they will win nothing if they do a test. North Korea is known for being a nuclear power and although the recent tensions with Japan and South Korea might complicate things, I consider that the election of Trump will even reduce this possibility even more.

The focus of the regime seems to have shifted toward a more supportive role of their closest and really only allies (Russia and China), even though I would almost consider the relationship with Russia as an alliance based on necessity.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

It´s a rogue State in the international arena, so, you never know

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