38th
Accuracy Rank

ansantillan

Andrés Santillán Reich
About:

Just graduated from university. I am currently an advisor on parliamentary diplomacy in the Mexican Senate. Interested in geopolitics mainly, however, I have growing interests in blockchain technology and new innovative techs. Trying to learn from the best.

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All Time Stats

2.933544

Relative Brier Score

2517

Forecasts

296

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 3 13 278 248 2517
Comments 0 3 86 63 665
Questions Forecasted 3 13 47 37 259
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 6 5 296
 Definitions

Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security, Emerging Technology, Iran: Threats & Influence, Artificial Intelligence, Russia-Ukraine War

Most Active Topics:
Iran Nuclear Program, Mission: Diplomacy, Microelectronics, Iran-VNSAs, Manufacturing

New Prediction
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
ansantillan made their 20th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Moldova
1% (0%)
Armenia
2% (0%)
Georgia
1% (0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
ansantillan made their 14th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Dec 18, 2025 to Jun 18, 2026
99% (0%)
No
Dec 18, 2025 to Jun 18, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

N/A

Files
Why might you be wrong?

N/A

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Reducing because of the time remaining.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

N/A

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
ansantillan made their 17th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Dec 6, 2025 to Jun 6, 2026
99% (0%)
No
Dec 6, 2025 to Jun 6, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
ansantillan made their 13th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Dec 6, 2025 to Jun 6, 2026
99% (0%)
No
Dec 6, 2025 to Jun 6, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Eliminating completely 

Files
Why might you be wrong?

N/A

Files
Files
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