Confirmed previous forecast
2.081984
Relative Brier Score
830
Forecasts
86
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 9 | 36 | 517 | 344 | 2126 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 20 | 15 | 139 |
Questions Forecasted | 9 | 34 | 91 | 62 | 238 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 48 | 38 | 280 |
Definitions |
New Prediction
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
3%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
1%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
99%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(-5%)
Yes
85%
(+5%)
No
Backing up a bit.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2025
96%
(0%)
No
Sep 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
90%
(+20%)
Yes
Sep 23, 2024 to Sep 23, 2025
10%
(-20%)
No
Sep 23, 2024 to Sep 23, 2025
Going even higher as death toll from the bombings increase. I'll be at 90% for both questions for the time being.
Files