159th

Accuracy Rank

ansantillan

Andrés Santillán Reich

About:

Just graduated from university. I am currently an advisor on parliamentary diplomacy in the Mexican Senate. Interested in geopolitics mainly, however, I have growing interests in blockchain technology and new innovative techs. Trying to learn from the best.

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-1.214899

Relative Brier Score

807

Forecasts

153

Upvotes

Forecasting Activity

Forecasting Calendar

	Past Week	Past Month	Past Year	This Season	All Time
Forecasts	17	44	510	400	2182
Comments	1	1	22	18	142
Questions Forecasted	17	39	93	66	242
Upvotes on Comments By This User	1	2	49	42	284
Definitions

New Prediction

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

ansantillan made their 15th forecast (view all):

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Probability

Answer

1% (0%)

Yes

99% (0%)

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Nov 04, 2024 10:26PM UTC

New Prediction

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

ansantillan made their 15th forecast (view all):

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Probability

Answer

1% (0%)

Yes

99% (0%)

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Nov 04, 2024 10:26PM UTC

New Prediction

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

ansantillan made their 7th forecast (view all):

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Probability

Answer

2% (0%)

S-400 or S-500 missile system

4% (0%)

Su-35 fighter jets

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Nov 04, 2024 10:26PM UTC

New Prediction

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

ansantillan made their 16th forecast (view all):

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Probability

Answer

0% (-2%)

Yes

100% (+2%)

Time remaining

Files

Nov 04, 2024 10:25PM UTC

New Prediction

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

ansantillan made their 3rd forecast (view all):

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Probability

Answer

0% (0%)

Less than 24%

0% (0%)

More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%

3% (-7%)

More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%

97% (+7%)

More than or equal to 28%

It´s practically done.

Files

Nov 04, 2024 10:24PM UTC

New Prediction

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

ansantillan made their 3rd forecast (view all):

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Probability

Answer

15% (0%)

Yes

85% (0%)

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Nov 03, 2024 05:42AM UTC

New Badge

ansantillan earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

ansantillan made their 1st forecast (view all):

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Probability

Answer

Argentina

Bolivia

Ecuador

Argentina has improved its fiscal position in recent years, so I won't consider it a contender for it to enter into default.

https://www.argentina.gob.ar/economia/politicafiscal

Bolivia is making the payments but has serious political issues to resolve and is the one most in danger of default.

https://www.la-razon.com/economia/2024/09/20/deuda/

Ecuador has made payments through the years and although the political and economic situation is challenging, I would say that is relatively stable. Ecuador has also taken steps to reduce fiscal strains, we will need to see if these are enough.

https://www.bancomundial.org/es/country/ecuador/overview

https://elpais.com/america/2024-06-03/ecuador-paga-una-deuda-millonaria-a-naciones-unidas-para-recuperar-su-voto-en-el-organismo.html

The main issue for me in this question is the limited timeline that is given. That´s why my forecasts are relatively low.

Files

Nov 02, 2024 12:18AM UTC