159th
Accuracy Rank

ansantillan

Andrés Santillán Reich
About:
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1.404265

Relative Brier Score

400

Forecasts

42

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 17 44 510 400 2182
Comments 1 1 22 18 142
Questions Forecasted 17 39 93 66 242
Upvotes on Comments By This User 1 2 49 42 284
 Definitions
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ansantillan
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
2% (0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
4% (0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
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ansantillan
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than 24%
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
3% (-7%)
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
97% (+7%)
More than or equal to 28%
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ansantillan
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

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Argentina has improved its fiscal position in recent years, so I won't consider it a contender for it to enter into default. 

https://www.argentina.gob.ar/economia/politicafiscal

Bolivia is making the payments but has serious political issues to resolve and is the one most in danger of default.

https://www.la-razon.com/economia/2024/09/20/deuda/

Ecuador has made payments through the years and although the political and economic situation is challenging, I would say that is relatively stable. Ecuador has also taken steps to reduce fiscal strains, we will need to see if these are enough.

https://www.bancomundial.org/es/country/ecuador/overview

https://elpais.com/america/2024-06-03/ecuador-paga-una-deuda-millonaria-a-naciones-unidas-para-recuperar-su-voto-en-el-organismo.html

The main issue for me in this question is the limited timeline that is given. That´s why my forecasts are relatively low.

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ansantillan
earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Oct 2024

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
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