1.404265
Relative Brier Score
400
Forecasts
42
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
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Forecasts | 17 | 44 | 510 | 400 | 2182 |
Comments | 1 | 1 | 22 | 18 | 142 |
Questions Forecasted | 17 | 39 | 93 | 66 | 242 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 2 | 49 | 42 | 284 |
Definitions |
Active Forecaster
Argentina has improved its fiscal position in recent years, so I won't consider it a contender for it to enter into default.
https://www.argentina.gob.ar/economia/politicafiscal
Bolivia is making the payments but has serious political issues to resolve and is the one most in danger of default.
https://www.la-razon.com/economia/2024/09/20/deuda/
Ecuador has made payments through the years and although the political and economic situation is challenging, I would say that is relatively stable. Ecuador has also taken steps to reduce fiscal strains, we will need to see if these are enough.
https://www.bancomundial.org/es/country/ecuador/overview
https://elpais.com/america/2024-06-03/ecuador-paga-una-deuda-millonaria-a-naciones-unidas-para-recuperar-su-voto-en-el-organismo.html
The main issue for me in this question is the limited timeline that is given. That´s why my forecasts are relatively low.